UAE Real Estate Market Review and Forecast 2020

Knight Frank announced the introduction of its UAE Market Review and Forecast 2020.

Taimur Khan, Associate Partner at Knight Frank Middle East, stated: “Whilst performance in the UAE’s property sectors has went on to smoothen down on average, we’ve started seeing performance in a few industry segments and also asset grades being to fragment. Much more so, the launch of a selection of laws to boost the simplicity of doing balance and business out demand and supply will improve the basic principles offering of the UAE’s property industry and consequently improve confidence from investors.” and designers

Macroeconomic overview   ikea

Initial estimates from the UAE Central Bank demonstrate that the UAE’s GDP increased by 2.3 % in 2019, up from the 1.7 % growth captured in 2018.

This much stronger number of GDP growth continues to be largely driven by the hydrocarbon segment, that is anticipated to capture progress of 4.9 % in 2019, up from 2.8 % in 2018.

The non oil market has seen comparatively muted growth in comparison with development in 2019 likely to register at 1.4 %, up marginally from 1.3 % in 2018.

Looking forward, the UAE’s GDP is likely to get momentum as well as capture a growth rate of 2.2 % in 2020, before tapering somewhat to 2.1 % in 2021 based on information from Oxford Economics. Expo 2020, existing expansionary budgets and stimulus packages are set to underpin these more powerful rates of development.

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Residential

Residential sales prices in Abu Dhabi fell typically by 7.5 % in 2019, whilst prices in Dubai fell by 6.0 % over the very same time.

Dubai’s residential industry is showing really first indicators of recovery as we start to find a sustained increase in transaction volumes. Initial data releases reveal that residential transaction volumes in 2019 have improved by twenty six % compared to 2018.

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The shipping of upcoming supply in Abu Dhabi and far more so in Dubai is considered the most substantial headwind struggling with the UAE’s residential industry over the new season.

In 2020 more than 8,500 devices are anticipated to be shipped in Abu Dhabi, the majority after 2013. In Dubai, almost 62,500 units are due for the end in 2020. Whilst we’re not likely to see this whole pipeline come to fruition, the quantum of stock ready being sent is usually the greatest after 2008.

Whilst in the very short to medium term this influx of supply is going to continue to place some pressure on prices and also rents, you will find a selection of procedures that are carried out and can help the good basic offering of the UAE’s property market.

Read: Government initiatives to help Dubai’s real estate market in 2020: CBRE report

Office

Over the course of 2020, the pattern of consolidation and a flight to quality is very likely to go on across the UAE, pushed by softer market conditions and regulatory modifications, like the hundred % foreign ownership law as well as two licencing.

In Abu Dhabi we expect rental rate declines to moderate, however the industry is apt to stay favoured towards occupiers. As this particular direction will come to fruition we look to see much longer term commitments from company occupiers, with typical lease lengths very likely to shift towards the five year mark.

more than the following 3 years, we imagine over 392,000 sqms of source to be shipped in Abu Dhabi, a 10.6 % boost than present full stock. Nevertheless, because the vast majority of this particular inventory is in non core locations or perhaps is built to suit for owner occupation, we don’t foresee that this particular extra source will likely have a material effect on industry performance.

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The brief to medium term outlook for Dubai’s commercial market remains bad with rents likely to still drop across virtually all segments. Nevertheless, we’re more likely to watch the office sector start to fragment – by area as well as within asset grades.

As at 2019, Dubai’s total GLA totalled 10.05 million square metres by 2025. We calculate this will total 11.3 million square metres, a rise of 12.5 %.

In 2020, Knight Frank estimates delivery of more than 280,000 square metres of commercial space in Dubai. The take in place of that room is very likely being pushed by relocations rather compared to different market entrants, that is anticipated to place additional strain on rental rates within places where this additional source is now being sent.

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Retail

Whilst there’ll be an influence on retailers margins as we come across better degrees of penetration from e commerce and as of much more recently e retailers, physical list space in the UAE, especially that that is concentrated around destination and entertainment focused developments will entice both customer and retailers demand.

Nevertheless, checking out the pipeline of upcoming developments in Abu Dhabi as well as more and so in Dubai, we imagine additional strain to be exerted on list assets of all levels across the UAE.

In Dubai, over the 5 years to 2025 retail stock is likely to improve by fifty six % to 5.91 million sqms, from 3.46 million sqms as at Q4 2019. Over ninety % of Dubai’s retail offering is classified as super-regional or regional stock; about eighty three % of the upcoming stock by total area is regarded as super-regional or regional stock.